War on Taiwan?
Last ten days, I have watched and read a couple dozen "experts" on the possibility and outcome of the war between China and Taiwan. This includes the "experts" from South East Asia most of whom are NED supported "experts". While the US and Western "experts" (other than Neo-Cons) try to approach objectively but with a spin due to their fantasies and wishful thinking, SEA "experts" are fully inline with the delusional approach of Neo-Cons.
Most of them treat it, or give the impression that Taiwan is a large country
with a large military and military means to defend itself.
Let's first keep in mind that ;
Taiwan is approximately 35,980 sq km (including the unoccupied islands)
Cuba is 110,860 sq km, three times larger than Taiwan
Donbass region of Ukraine is approximately 53,201 sq km, 1,5 times larger than Taiwan. Moldova is similar size with Taiwan. Taiwan over all is double the size of the City of Beijing.
Although most "experts" admit that during the first days of a possible war, China could destroy all the air force and navy of Taiwan, they spin it and somehow come to the conclusion that it would be a "Chinese defeat" because the US will be involved soon enough.
Most points out that Japan will not participate in the war unless China attacks in its structures "other than the US bases".
One of their fantasy and wishful thinking is that Russia will not participate in the war in case Japan participates in war on the side of the US, and Russia is not strong enough, or even has no military presence to counter Japan. That claim is only wishful thinking that does not reflect the realities. Russia has military basis only a couple miles away from Japan in Kuril Islands. Russia also have numerous Naval Military base In its Sakhalin Island, Kamchatka, Kaharovsk, Primimorsky regions facing the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk surrounding Japan. Let's add the fact that Japan and Russia has never signed a peace. ( The state of war between the Soviet Union and Japan technically existed until 1956, when it was ended by the Soviet–Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956. A formal peace treaty still has not been signed.) That translates in to the fact they are technically still at war and have disputes on islands. That means the issue of Taiwan will also be an issue of Japan and the US will be fighting over Japan too.
It may be because they do not want to scare their proxy government in South Korea, they try to avoid the North-South question and their inevitable involvement in the war since the US has military bases in South Korea not too far from China. The fact that any war against China will trigger the war in Korean Peninsula, not in later days but at the initial stages of war.
Leaving aside all the fabricated cheap, "stories" directed to the dumb and dumber on North Korea and its military power, the fact that most objective experts even from the Liberal West come to a common conclusion that South Korea is no match militarily against North Korea despite the existence of US military base.
Some avoid the question of South Korea for the fact that the issue of Taiwan will inevitably be an issue of South Korea, others claim that South Korea can beat North with the help of US, meaning that the US will not have to fight for Taiwan only but also for South Korea.
Some even claimed that Vietnam is and will be allied with the US.
The facts against the fantasies and wishful thinking of the Neo-Con and other Western "experts", is that a war for Taiwan will not be a war by itself but will drag Japan and South Korea in it. That inevitability will bring about another; the participation of Russia and North Korea in the war on the side of China.
The subjective denial of the "existential strong alliance" between China-Russia and North Korea" slowly but surely creeping even in the assessments of the western experts but they spin and try to conceal it with their fantasy and wishful thinking.
Some of the 'experts" who try to be objective, although vaguely, admits that the US will not and cannot directly and affectively participate in such a war from thousands of miles away.
Translating what they all mean is that the US will and can only carry out proxy wars at the expense of the local military and its population. That may even include Philippines. The US will not directly participate in such a war but as always, desert them when it fits it’s interests.
This is very much in line with our early 2022 analysis and the latest articles on Taiwan, on the possibility of nuclear war, on Myanmar...
The issue of Taiwan is being used by the US to corner and force China to give concessions, subjugate China to its economic-political demands. However, with the declining hegemony of US militarily is obvious to all except those living in a fantasy land, as their yesterday's statement indicates China will not bow down to the old "carrot and stick" tactics of the USA.
Neo-Cons and the NED leftists (even some hiding behind Marxist mask) are in denial of the fact that the unipolar world is becoming a thing of the past. Their wishful thinking forces them to deny the fact of "Russia-China-North Korea alliance" on the face of the US-West threats.
As I have noted previously, without an exceptional situation arising, Taiwan is not a serious issue for China as much as the issue of Myanmar on the horizon.
Addition
Tumen River
In close relation to the previous commentary on Taiwan issue, although it is not confirmed yet, it is important to add the following development.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had a two day visit to China. The speculation on the visit includes the full access of China to the Sea of Japan through Tumen River. (They already have a basic agreement for the access) Russia and the DPRK sharing a border on the river constrains Chinese access to the sea. The joint statement released reads;
“Both parties will engage in constructive dialogue with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea regarding the navigation of Chinese vessels through the lower Tumen River to the sea.”
Tumen or Duman River flows in northeast Asia, on the border between China and North Korea in its upper reaches, and between North Korea and Russia in its last 17 kilometers before entering the Sea of Japan.
Western analyzers, with the same wishful thinking claim that "North Korea likely isn’t eager to help China make better use of the Tumen River, both because of the significant expense of dredging the riverbed".
And similarly the mouth piece of CIA in South East Asia specific, "Radio Free Asia" down plays the development by saying that " it would require extensive dredging and other infrastructure development” to make the Tumen into a navigable river."
Westerners have so many "stories" even Hollywood like fake videos about Tumen River and North Korea, one of which is the "penetration of US Seal Team in to North Korea. From where and how is questionable- from Russia? From China? Let them live in their fantasy land and produce articles and movies addressing the dumb and dumber.
Some so called experts, with their wishful thinking, among other absurdities, they say The low vertical clearance of the Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge, built in the 1950s and spans the river, also means that larger vessels cannot pass through".
The agreement will not only benefit China economically but militarily.
Despite all the downplaying the Tumen River question;
1-) North Korea already successfully completed about 40 kilometers of Tumen River embankment construction for flood prevention.
2-) China already has been clearing and developing the Tumen River within its borders. In 2016, China released 800,000 salmon seedlings into Tumen river in order to expand the regional fishing industry and meet the increasing demand for sea products
3-) Removing the existing bridge and replacing with a new one that gives full access for navigation is not a challenge for China that has an industrial and skill capacity to build bridges in a couple days.
4) China and North Korea have a mutual aid and co-operation treaty, signed in 1961 it is currently the only defense treaty either country has with any nation other than possibly with Russia.
5) China is already investing in the construction and development of North Korean Ports. Russia already has agreements to use the North Korean Ports.
The western fantasy and wishful thinking that China and Russia has so many conflicting issues and never join in an alliance, and thus the practice of pitting them against each other did not reflect the reality. Similarly, the wishful thinking that "Moscow and Beijing distrust the Kim regime and, with pressing concerns elsewhere, are loath to see DPRK behaviour destabilize the Korean Peninsula" does not reflect the current realities. Both Russia (first) and China (next) has waken up from their illusion about the West and dropped their appeasement policies. That's why their interests as far as security is concerned has become a common one which will facilitate mutual agreements on such concerned issues.
China's access to Sea of Japan serves both to the interests of Russia and North Korea- for North Korea both economically and militarily.
Erdogan A
May 24, 2024
Thailand
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| Two different Scenarios to consider |
The gossips on the deployment of US military personal to the Kinmen Islands (main and little island) in addition to the billions of dollars “military aid” to Taiwan have become the third serious world issue following Ukraine and Gaza.
Since US and the rest of the world acknowledge one China policy, such action, at least geographically would be similar to China deploying its military personal to Nantucket island off the coast of Boston, and/or to Grand Bahamas, or better to Puerto Rico. Such an action would be an extreme example of “forcing war upon” a nation. I will not dwell on such comparison or the NED Socialist’s “learned by rote theories”, sophistries, and demagogies. I will try to break down the realities based on concrete conditions and situations and see if these provocations really have any merits at all and make an argument that it is not Taiwan that China is really concerned about but, regionally, it is Myanmar that a serious provocation is on the way to be a case of Ukraine in the South East Asia.
Whether it is a gossip or not, the Western media reports;
Taiwan Acknowledges Presence of U.S. Troops on Outlying Islands
Rare comments came in response to a report that American special forces trainers would be sent to Kinmen, 3 miles off the Chinese coast – Wall Street Journal
And confirming that, one of the Think-Thank group states;
Breaking a Seven-Decade Taboo: The Deployment of US Special Forces to Kinmen
Since the 1950s, U.S. policy has deliberately excluded Taiwan’s offshore islands, particularly Kinmen and Matsu, from its defense commitments under the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty (1955–80) and the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979. These islands, due to their proximity to mainland China—just a few miles off the coast—were considered indefensible in a strategic sense and too sensitive geopolitically.
The rationale was grounded in three main considerations.
First is these islands’ proximity to mainland China. Kinmen is only about
six miles from Xiamen, China, making it geographically vulnerable to Chinese
military action.
Second, these islands carry geopolitical sensitivity. Defending these
islands could escalate tensions unnecessarily and drag the U.S. into direct
conflict with China, contrary to the longstanding U.S. objective of
maintaining peace and the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.
Third, the military logistics of defending these islands were deemed
unfeasible and not in the strategic interest of the United States, given
their location beyond the median line of the Taiwan Strait where the capital
warships of the U.S. 7th Fleet routinely patrolled. (Hoover
Institution)
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| China from Kinmen Island |
As the history indicates, after the defeat by the Chinese People Liberation Army, the Kuomintang (KMT) established itself on the island of Taiwan in 1949. Since then, the Kinmen Islands and its people have been on the frontlines of cross-Strait’s fluctuating relations. During this time Kinmen islands became intensely militarized. Little Kinmen had a population of military personnel outnumbering the civilians.
The developments in China affected Kinmen and helped its transformation from
a militarized fortress to a tourist destination while keeping the military
population to a larger degree. Trade activities connected Kinmen with the
neighboring Chinese city of Xiamen through direct people-to-people
activities. This radically transformed Kinmen into a melting pot of Chinese
and Taiwanese which the Kinmen people still fiercely advocates. That trend
confirms itself throughout all the election results as Kinmen Islands
traditionally a KMT’s electoral stronghold.
The New Party an offshoot of the KMT which strongly advocates for Taiwan’s
unification with China, gained political success in Kinmen in the 2001
legislative elections. It is not coincidence that the KMT members are
re-elected in legislative elections including in 2024. As for the presidential
election, while the KMT won the 61.40 percent of the vote in Kinmen, he
faced a competition during the campaign from the TPP, TPP successfully stole
some of Kinmen’s residents away from their traditional KMT loyalties,
winning the support of 28.58 percent of Kinmen’s electorate.
Legislative Election 2024: Kinmen County Constituency
Party Votes % ±%
Kuomintang 28,846 65.28 +18.64
TPP 13,177 29.82
Independent 2,168 4.91
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| No tourists but celebration goes on |
The election results in Little Kinmen Island indicates that the pro-US ruling DPP has no presence to speak about. Considering the fact that the island is largely resided by the military personnel and their families, it wouldn’t be a far fetch assumption that even the military on the island is not pro-US but for good relations with China. The primary reason for this is economic since the livelihood and the development of the Kinmen is contingent on good relations with China. Before DPP , the island has been open for tourism and mainland Chinese tourists have been able to travel to Kinmen Island by ferry without a permit since 2015. According to the statistical data in 2019 nearly 1.2 million tourists from Mainland China had visited Kinmen.
Considering these, although the US military deployment would be crossing the redline of China and does not look plausible (other than a very small number of “advisers”), such an action that will put them in an immediate danger cannot be welcomed by the residents of Kinmen.
Let’s look at Taiwan in general.
2024 results are shown on a long list. I have kept only the ones with highest votes and seats in the parliament.
|
113 SEATS |
|||||||||
|
Party |
Party-list |
Constituency/Aboriginal |
Total |
+/– |
|||||
|
Votes |
% |
Seats |
Votes |
% |
Seats |
||||
|
Democratic Progressive Party |
4,982,062 |
36.16 |
13 |
6,095,276 |
45.09 |
38 |
51 |
–10 |
|
|
Kuomintang |
4,764,576 |
34.58 |
13 |
5,401,933 |
39.96 |
39 |
52 |
+14 |
|
|
Taiwan People's Party |
3,040,615 |
22.07 |
8 |
403,357 |
2.98 |
0 |
8 |
+3 |
|
|
New Power Party |
353,670 |
2.57 |
0 |
96,589 |
0.71 |
0 |
0 |
–3 |
|
|
Independents |
1,069,758 |
7.91 |
2 |
2 |
–3 |
||||
|
Total |
13,778,302 |
100.00 |
34 |
13,518,140 |
100.00 |
79 |
113 |
0 |
|
|
Valid votes |
13,778,302 |
98.10 |
13,518,140 |
97.41 |
|||||
|
Invalid/blank votes |
267,306 |
1.90 |
359,917 |
2.59 |
|||||
|
Total votes |
14,045,608 |
100.00 |
13,878,057 |
100.00 |
|||||
|
Registered voters/turnout |
19,566,007 |
71.79 |
19,468,969 |
71.28 |
|||||
|
Source: Central Election Commission |
|||||||||
If we consider the common election frauds and vote-buying and the unexplained difference between the voters turn out and total votes, based on the experience from similar elections, it wouldn’t be an exaggeration to assume that solely pro-US votes in Taiwan elections is in the range of % 30 and less. That translates in to a conclusion that %70 of the Taiwanese people are for good relationship with Mainland China.
Looking at such a picture, we can say that China will not have to take a military action against Taiwan unless the “war is forced upon” him leaving no other alternative.
Now let’s discuss the possibility of a war between China and US over Taiwan issue.
Aside from the fact that the US recognizing one China policy, and yet “forcing a war upon China over Taiwan will be exposed one more time and condemned by most of the world, such an action of US would be suicidal for it has no military power to challenge China on its borders.
Most US-Nationalist ex-military , ex-CIA officers and even some Neo-Con professors are openly arguing that the US has no military power to defeat China on its own land. Same experts pointing the war in Ukraine as a war between the US-West against Russia with a long land border. They reiterate the fact that the US-West combined could not and cannot beat Russia with which they have land access. China is thousands of miles away with no land access, a requirement for winning the war against such a great power.
Most importantly, living in a fantasy land with their exceptionalism, superiority state of mind the Neo-Cons of the US, while trying to pit Russia against China, China and Russia against North Korea set the foundation for and facilitated the formation of an unbreakable, existential-alliance between them. Gradually strengthening alliance of China-Russia-North Korea has become an unbeatable one both economically and militarily. They will have to help North Korea for its economic development and improve its military capacity with the latest technology. North Korea has the function of deterring the US proxy South Korea and Japan which is a couple miles away from Russia and with which it is technically still at war. Their existential question has become interlaced.
Ukraine proxy war and the defeat of the US-West encouraged most of the South East Asian countries to take a neutral stand, most likely due to the fear of becoming a proxy to US and face the same consequences as of Ukraine. Already people of Japan and South Korea filling the streets against a war in the region and against their government’s proxy steps.
US has no alliance in South East Asia other than Philippines who are willing and anxious to play the role of proxy for the US. Let’s not forget that Philippines has its own problems with the 150,000 strong Guerillas spread over 100 fronts waiting for such an opportunity.
There always will be exceptional situation for a war breaking out. However, the concrete conditions, situations and facts shows that a war between China and US over Taiwan is highly unlikely. The US Neo-Cons are , as the latest events have proven, bluffing with a bad card in their hands in order to corner China to give concessions. However, as Russia has woken up from its delusion about the US-West and stopped its appeasement policy, looks like the latest events left no other choice for China, but to stop their appeasement policy towards the US. That means China is not bluffing with its redline about Taiwan. Even if the Neo-Cons cannot see that, most US experts do.
The only country left to make a proxy at the border of China is Myanmar in which the NED’s PDF “guerillas” fighting to overthrow the military government toppling of which will open the door for the US to deploy its military to 2,129 km long Chinese border. That’s why Myanmar issue is more challenging for China than the issue of Taiwan.
The “peace and neighborly relations” policy of China gained credibility and trust among its neighboring countries. In case of the defeat of Myanmar military and a proxy PDF government (currently exile government situated in Washington) will inevitably bring about the US military presence in to Myanmar. Any military action by China in Myanmar would be highly damaging politically. If China does not get involved and prevent that happening, China might find itself facing much more a difficult situation. That is why Myanmar is a much more challenging issue than Taiwan for China. Forcing upon a war on China is much more easier through a small bordering country, Myanmar, than through its own officially recognized land, Taiwan. Let’s not forget that Myanmar’s neighbor India’s China policy is no different than anti-China faction of Neo-Cons. In this sense, US may have an ally in its proxy war against China through Myanmar.
Under the current initial stage of the multi-polar world US is declining militarily, Europe’s military is deteriorated to a degree that has no fighting power and going through a worsening economic crisis. The US, with its world dominant financial capital and military industry remains to be an economic world power. However, with the 1990s set of mind and warmongering policies, deepening cracks in its economic and military alliances, its economy may well collapse in the near future. Having being aware of that, the finance capital of the US will definitely interfere for a compromise while permitting the provocations and bluffing with bad hand in order to reach to a point that is ripe for a handshake and peace deal with China and Russia. A peace deal in order to improve its military capabilities and strategic, economic alliances in order to prepare itself for new wars – most likely proxy wars. “Capitalist society” says Bukharin, “is unthinkable without armaments, as it is unthinkable without wars…the rule of finance capital implies both imperialism and militarism. In this sense militarism is no less a typical historic phenomenon than finance capital itself.“
Although the period of peace, regardless of its duration, will be a duration for war preparations on the finance capital side, it will be a beneficial duration for the struggle of revolutionary democrats.
Erdogan A
May 2024
Taiwan
Taiwan Elections; prelude to war or peace. Western Media Narratives on Taiwan- fantasies and fallacies.
Treating Taiwan as an independent country in practice yet accepting One China policy.
Including the UN, US, all claim that they have one China policy and they do not support Taiwan's Independence, yet they support the “independence” of Taiwan.
Through the manipulation and fallacies the western media created a false reality in the minds of people that Taiwan is an independent country and China is bullying and trying to conquer Taiwan by force and the West is helping a sovereign country and standing up for Taiwan. They are encouraging separatism and militarization in Taiwan to create a nation for their proxy war against China. With their hypocrisy they are violating the international law which is not an exception to Taiwan but their common practice.
Same hypocritical phrase such “Taiwan’s future should be decided by its own people “is used to deceive the people as if they are not interfering the internal affairs of Taiwan but letting the people decide. This phrase by itself clearly deceptive and assumes that Taiwan is an independent country while they claim it is not by officially accepting the “One China Policy”. All the facts has shown that in Taiwan decisions regarding Taiwan is not being made by the people of Taiwan or by DPP but by Washington. The WikiLeaks reports have sufficient evidence to support that fact, in addition to the actual policies followed by the DPP designed by the US.
Taiwan is not a member of the United Nations. In reality, only Vatican City and 12 of the 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as of 2023. It is interesting to know which ” sovereign countries” these are; Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Holy See (Vatican City), Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Tuvalu. Honduras cut ties with Taiwan and recognized “One China Policy” last year.
Taiwanese Economy
Statistics tell more than words. Taiwan's largest trade partner is China.
Exports
Imports
It is obvious that DPP’s anti-China policy and separatism will be a destructive affect on Taiwanese economy. It will benefit the US interests rather than the interests of Taiwanese people at their expense.
NED (National Endowment for Democracy) and DPP.
As in most countries in the world, especially in South East Asia, NED and its subsidiary organizations are very active in Taiwan. They have a subsidiary in Taiwan called Taiwan Foundation for Democracy. It is no secret that DPP and the Taiwan president frequently meet in “cooperation “ with and for the “Global Assembly of the World Movement for Democracy” another subsidiary of NED. It is a way to secure a useful proxy role in the implementation of US policies in the country.
Fantasies of The West being spread in Taiwan in specific and Asia in general
There are so many extensions of Western Media in Asia from Nikkei to South China Morning Post, from WION to Asia Sentinel with their own numerous subsidiaries spreading the fantasy and fallacies of the Western Neo-cons. The reality on the ground is gradually changing after the collapse of Western Media Narratives in relation to Ukraine war. How ever they are still dominant in shaping the minds of people and creating false reality. It is not surprising that even in the US these fantasies and fallacies are being challenged and debunked by some popular liberal, anti-communist academicians and ex-military officials, there are very few debunking the fallacies in South East Asia. Both for the war in Ukraine and on the possibility of a China US war (and the war in Gaza). American conservative Colonel Douglass MacGregor, Liberal Professor Jeffrey Sachs and numerous other conservatives leading the debunking and making objective assessments.
One of those group of critiques, Professor John Mearsheimer while being objective on the issue of Ukraine and to some degree on Gaza, he is reiterating the Neo-Con Western fantasies with a subjective approach to a possible war with China issue. Like all the other subjective analysists, he takes the issue as a war against China by itself with an alliance of South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and Australia. The current world reality however requires (at the least) North Korea and Russia to be considered and added to the equation as allies of China in the case of a US war against China. Anyone who does not add them to the equation would be far from understanding the current realities of the world and the existential strategic alliances. A possible war of US with its allies against China will instantly bring about a war against North Korea and Russia. So the equation is not a war between the US and its allies against China alone but a war between the alliances; a war against China, Russia, and North Korea.
With this equation, as Colonel McGregor puts it, is a fantasy and fallacy of Ne-Cons and there is no way to win a war against that alliance. South Korea has no chances against North Korea, neither has Japan any chance to win a war against Russia. Also, it is questionable that Japan, one of the 5 top countries in world economy will risk its future by being a proxy to the US. So the equation comes down to thousands of miles away US with waging war against the China, Russia, North Korea with Philippines, and Australia. The question of Philippines in an outright war cannot be considered without the question of Socialist Guerillas who are waging a long war against the government. So, it is hopeless and counterproductive for the Philippines to participate in a proxy war against China regardless of all their rhetoric.
It is the accepted fact that no country or any alliance of countries can beat the US from thousands of miles away. The same goes for China and for Russia who has proven so far that it is not beatable by the West on its own borders.
Thus, since the war of US (alliance) against China (alliance) could most likely be a proxy war, winning that war is a fantasy of Neo-Cons and their puppets in those countries. As the war in Ukraine clearly showed us, such a war would only bring about destruction of the proxy countries and suffering of their people.
Such fantasies and fallacies spread by the Western Media and the Puppets of NED in those countries can only serve to the continuation of their puppet regimes and to the “livelihood” of their puppets whether it be the leaders of NGO organizations or academicians/politicians on their payroll.
Nothing is stagnant but bound to change in time, especially at times where the truth rises from the pile of fallacies and myths are shuttered, the changes becomes inevitable and unpreventable.
We have already seen the gradual changes in the minds of Taiwanese people and “softening” on the part of some of the leading politicians. The elections will be another indication- to some degree- of this change in Taiwan. We will wait and see.
Election
In Taiwan, about 19.5 million people are registered to vote. The participation for the election has been relatively high in the last two elections – at 66.27 percent in 2016 and 74.9 percent in 2020 and expected to be higher for this elections. The impact of the US proxy war in Ukraine and Beijing’s words as to “the DPP as a political “separatists” and that a vote for the party is akin to a vote for “war” in the Taiwan Strait” may play a significant role despite all the possibilities of US mingling and election frauds. All the polls for the last decade show an increasing tendency to the preservation of the “status quo” which is around %90 + with less than %10 for the separation. The “status quo” tendency is divided in two; one is for closer ties with China other is for closer ties with both China and the US in different degrees. DPP represents the separatists group but has ethnic anti-China followers who tend to be more for US than China.
The elections results may be a better indication of the tendencies of Taiwanese people.
We will wait and see if the spoke person of the State Council’s Taiwan Affairs words will have any affect on the election who stated; "Taiwan independence" is incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Straits and goes against the interests and well-being of the people in Taiwan. Only with peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and peaceful development of cross-Straits relations can the people in Taiwan live a peaceful, secure, and prosperous life”… hope that the majority of the compatriots on the island of Taiwan will recognize the extreme harm of the DPP's "Taiwan independence" path and the extreme danger of Lai's provocation of cross-Straits conflicts, and make the right choice at the crossroads of cross-Straits relations, to create a new situation of friendly support and prosperous development between compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits.”
Parties
Democratic Progressive Party (incumbent)
Presidential Candidate; Lai Ching-te. Currently Vice President of the Republic of China since 2020, became Chairmen of the party on January 2023. Lai "visited" the US to lobby Washington to support him in the election, despite the opposition of Taiwan compatriots fearing that would come at the cost of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
Vice President
candidate; Hsiao
Bi-khim. Born in Kōbe, Japan, to a Taiwanese father and an American mother.
Raised in America. She became active with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
representative office in the US, serving as an activity coordinator. Became
an adviser to the National Security Council in March 2020. Same year in June,
Hsiao was appointed Taiwan's representative to the United States. On 20
November 2023, Democratic Progressive Party presidential candidate Lai
Ching-te officially named Hsiao his vice presidential candidate for the 2024
presidential election. She is a diehard “Taiwan independence” separatist and
pro US candidate. Always
docile and obedient to the US, she is more
like a "US representative to Taiwan".
DPP secessionists use the typical fallacy tactics of Collective Neo-Con West and have the same fantasy of believing that the US can be relied on as a protective umbrella for their attempt to seek "Taiwan independence". Fear and warmongering tactics of secessionists continues despite the fact that China repeatedly stresses that it seeks the peaceful reunification of the island, but the use of force is an alternative it will resort to if necessary.
Taiwan's two main opposition parties, the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP)
The Kuomintang (KMT) - Chinese Nationalist Party(CNP)
Presidential Candidate; Hou Yu-ih, Mayor of New Taipei with %62 vote in 2022 versus % 57 of vote in 2018 against DPP. He was drafted by the Kuomintang on 17 May 2023 to be its nominee for the presidency. In his December 7 2023 speech, Hou Yu-ih said that if elected, he will seek to maintain friendly relations with both China and the United States. He pointed out that the current administration's foreign policy has seen several diplomatic allies sever relations with Taiwan, a complete inability to participate in regional economic organizations, and a breakdown in cross-strait communications. Since Tsai assumed office in 2016, a total of nine countries have severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and official communications with China have been non-existent. Hou argued that "Tsai's policy does not work," advocating instead for a more balanced pro-U.S. and pro-China stance. (https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202312070015)
Hou further elaborated on his position, calling for strong alignment with the United States while also stressing the importance of communicating with China.
Vice President Candidate; Jaw Shaw-kong
Jaw is a staunch supporter of unification with China https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202311240014 and believes unification is not possible under the current circumstances. He opposes Taiwanese independence, saying there would be no war across the Taiwan Strait as long as Taiwan did not formally declare independence. He believes the current focus of Cross-Strait relations should be peaceful development, and that it was for the next generation in both sides to see which political system "would bring the greatest happiness to the people." (Apple Daily (in Chinese). 31 May 2018)
It is said that the support for the KMT generally tend to be stronger in majority-Hakka and Mandarin-speaking counties of Taiwan, in contrast to the Hokkien-majority southwestern counties that tend to support the Democratic Progressive Party.
KMT favors closer relations with the PRC and the CCP. It also opposes Chinese unification under the "one country, two systems" framework and any non-peaceful means to resolve the cross-strait disputes. KMT also accepts the 1992 Consensus, which defines both sides of the Taiwan Strait as "one China “with different interpretations of it.
Taiwan People's Party (TPP)
It was formally established on 6 August 2019 by Ko Wen-je.
Presidential candidate; Ko Wen-je, previous Mayor of Taipei.
Ko Wen-je said that he would follow incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen's foreign policy if elected. (December 6 2023 speech) However, when he was a mayor of Taipei, Ko has expanded the city's relationship with mainland China. While in 2014, Ko mentioned that his strategic goals are the same as those of the DPP, Ko's stances started shifting.
Vice President candidate; Cynthia Wu; She worked for subsidiaries of Merrill Lynch in the United Kingdom and the Shin Kong Group in Taiwan before she was appointed to the Legislative Yuan in 2022. She was born in the United States, lived in the UK. Wu worked for Merrill Lynch in London. She is married to a Belgian Baron, a Belgian elite since 2022.
Coalitions
The pan-Blue coalition is a political coalition in the Republic of China (Taiwan) consisting of the Kuomintang (KMT), People First Party (PFP), New Party (CNP), Non-Partisan Solidarity Union (NPSU), and Young China Party (YCP) which maintains that the Republic of China instead of the People's Republic of China is the legitimate government of China, favors a Chinese and Taiwanese dual identity over an exclusive Taiwanese identity, and favors greater friendly exchange with Mainland China, as opposed to the Pan-Green Coalition (a coalition of DPP).
Erdogan A
January 11, 2024
Thailand